Prediction market resolution rules

Here is the sentence that saves beginners the most money: on a prediction market, the rules are the bet. A contract does not pay out because the thing you had in mind happened. It pays out because the written resolution criteria were met, judged against a named source, by a stated deadline. Confusing the event in your head with the event in the fine print is the single most common and expensive mistake in the whole category.

The rules are the bet

Every contract carries a resolution document: the precise definition of what must occur, when it is measured, and who or what decides. Two contracts that sound identical in casual language can resolve on completely different criteria. "Will the Harbor City team make the playoffs?" needs a definition of make the playoffs, a cutoff date, and an official standings source before it means anything settleable.

That made-up rule answers questions the casual phrasing never did. Do forfeits count? Yes, as losses. Do postponed games count? No. What is the threshold? Forty-one wins, not a vibe about a good season. Trade the loose question and you are guessing; trade the actual rule and you know what you own.

Two ways the fine print bites

Ambiguous criteria. When a rule leaves room to argue, that room is your risk. A contract on whether a player "starts the match" needs to define starting. A contract on a statistical milestone needs to say whether overtime counts. Vague terms tend to resolve in the way you least expected precisely when money is on the line.

Source-of-truth disputes. A contract resolves by its designated authority, and that authority can be delayed, revised, or contested. A result that looks obvious to viewers can settle differently if the official record reads otherwise. The rule tells you which record wins. If it does not, treat that silence as a hazard, not a detail.

Read the terms before you trade

The discipline is simple to state and hard to keep: read the full resolution terms before you put money down, every time, even when the contract looks self-explanatory. The most dangerous contracts are the ones that seem too obvious to check.

This habit is boring, and that is the point. The same care applies to any fine print in this space, from contract settlement to the terms behind a promotion. If you want practice reading conditions closely, the same muscle shows up in bonus and rollover terms. Structure and availability vary by jurisdiction, so check your local rules; this is not legal advice.