Glossary
Projection
A projection is the number a platform posts for a player's stat, such as points, rebounds, or receiving yards, that you then bet over or under. It is the platform's line, and it can sit noticeably off the wider market's consensus, which is the first thing a careful player checks.
A projection is the pivot point of a player prop bet: the platform states a number for a stat, and you choose whether the real result will finish over or under it. If the projection for fictional forward Mateo Cruz is 18.5 points, an over pick wins at 19 and loses at 18 (name and figures invented).
The key literacy point is that a projection is one platform's number, not an objective truth. Different platforms can post different projections for the same player, and any of them can drift from where the broader market settles. When a posted projection sits well below or above the consensus number elsewhere, that gap is information: it may reflect a slow update, a different model, or a line shaded to steer action.
How to read one
Treat the projection as a claim to be tested, not accepted. Compare it against recent performance, the matchup, and where other markets have the same stat. A projection that looks generously low can be a stale line, or it can be pricing in news you have not seen yet. The discipline is checking before assuming which.