Glossary
Longshot
A longshot is an outcome considered unlikely, carrying long odds and a large potential payout relative to the stake. Betting a longshot means backing an underdog or a rare result, accepting a low chance of winning in exchange for a bigger return if it hits.
A longshot is the far end of the underdog spectrum. Its odds are long, meaning a small stake could return a large sum, precisely because the market judges the outcome to be improbable. The bigger the payout on offer, the lower the implied chance the book is assigning.
Longshots appear everywhere, a heavy underdog on the moneyline, a deep futures pick, an unlikely prop. Backing the Port Verdi outsider to win outright is a longshot bet. The appeal is obvious, since a winning ticket pays a big multiple of the stake, and so is the catch, since most longshots do not come in.
The longshot bias
Research on betting markets has long noted a longshot bias, a tendency for bettors to overvalue long odds and slightly overpay for the dream of a big score. The excitement of a huge payout can make a low-probability bet feel more likely than it is.
Long odds, long waits
A longshot can be fun in small, planned amounts, but the long odds are long for a reason. Treating a longshot as anything more than a low-probability flier is a common way to misjudge risk.